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Thread: dotmobi to speak @ T.R.A.F.F.I.C. in Dublin

  1. #31
    Founding Member Scandiman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vance Hedderel View Post
    "1MM names registered" is what the mention at http://www.circleid.com/posts/200810..._domain_names/ is referencing. In other words, 1MM names were registered. Some were quickly deleted. Some were deleted after one year, etc.

    In what I wrote above, I mean "1MM under management," meaning that we're seeing a stabilized add / delete flow of domains and the number is growing steadily. We discussed this dip-then-growth phenomenon in the .mobi Resource Center at http://dotmobi.mobi/resource/the-mob...d-and-compared. In the initial two years of a domain —*any domain — you can expect to see registration exuberance, followed by a dip via deletes (for a variety of reasons) and then a stable zone file and, where .mobi is at now, stable growth.
    Yes, I understand there is always fluctuation in total registration numbers, but when is a domain ever "registered" and not "under management"? Is there ever a technical distinction? As soon as a name is registered it is managed, when it is dropped it is no longer managed. The terms are synonymous yet you're trying to make a distinction. It rather sounds like you were previously counting cumulative registrations, as in if I register a domain one year and renew it the next you were counting it as 2 registrations.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vance Hedderel View Post
    Since there seem to be a lot of questions about something that was relatively innocuous, here's some info re: dotMobi and the recent T.R.A.F.F.I.C. Dublin event:

    Q: Why did dotMobi speak at T.R.A.F.F.I.C. Dublin?
    A: Simple, we were invited to speak.

    Q: Why wasn’t there much news from this conference?
    A: It was poorly attended. A domain conference in Dublin in August — during the height of vacation season — and a $1,000 entry free is a difficult sell in the current economic climate. According to Pinky Brand, who represented dotMobi at the event, it was the most poorly attended domain conference he'd been to in his 15 years in the industry. He never saw more than 20 people attend any one presentation or seminar -- and those 20 people included sponsors and other speakers.
    In terms of pricing, the TRAFFIC Dublin thing was a bit high. Perhaps it was attractive to some domainer tourists but very few Irish domainers would pay such high entrance fees.

    The overall growth of the .mobi domain. We're closing in on one million .mobi domains registered with that number continuing to grow. We're now at our highest-ever number in the name base and we're poised to be only the sixth gTLD to reach one million domains under management. The growth in our zone file last year and this year is comparable to other gTLDs -- certainly better than any other "newer" TLDs like .tel.
    The mobi zonefile analysis on the .mobi blog was a bit light and it missed the important points of what has been happening with some of the newer TLDs. The .mobi registrations pattern from 2007 to 2010 (http://www.hosterstats.com/mobi-doma...istrations.php ) shows two spikes in deletions. The first is the Landrush anniversary Junk Dump but there's an echo of this a year later with a smaller spike in deletions. The .asia Landrush Graph (http://www.hosterstats.com/Domain-La...Graph-asia.php) is even more terrifying for a new TLD in that there's a double Junk Dump of approximately the same volume each time. The .tel TLD is a curious one in that it seems to have targeted the business community rather than domainers but it has the characteristics of a pay-for-inclusion web directory rather than those of a TLD.

    The .eu ccTLD is also a very strange TLD. Its development was hampered by massive cyberwarehousing and a high level of cybersquatting. The registry, Eurid, did little to resolve the problems and the EU business community lost confidence in the TLD. This led to a boost in real EU ccTLD registrations and throughout the old EU, the .eu ccTLD is very much a third or fourth choice registration despite what the propaganda from Eurid would claim. The main growth in .eu is now limited to a handful of countries. The engine of .eu is Germany. Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic are the other key players but .eu growth in some of the other EU countries has flat-lined and in some cases, started to go negative.

    The .mobi TLD was lucky to catch the start of the wave when it launched. It managed to balance the key element of development with the domainer element. But all TLDs are going to find the next six months to a year very difficult. There's a long term trend of the TLD market refocusing on ccTLDs that started about 2007. The Chinese IDNs helped .mobi's registration volume but the .cn ccTLD has lost almost 50% of its registrations in 2010 so it will be interesting to see the renewals rates on these domains.

    Regards...jmcc
    http://www.hosterstats.com
    Domain Registration Stats and Historical DNS Database.
    Tracks over 275 Million active and deleted domains in com / net / org / biz / info / mobi /asia TLDs.

  3. #33
    Senior Member gogo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmcc View Post
    In terms of pricing, the TRAFFIC Dublin thing was a bit high. Perhaps it was attractive to some domainer tourists but very few Irish domainers would pay such high entrance fees.

    The mobi zonefile analysis on the .mobi blog was a bit light and it missed the important points of what has been happening with some of the newer TLDs. The .mobi registrations pattern from 2007 to 2010 (http://www.hosterstats.com/mobi-doma...istrations.php ) shows two spikes in deletions. The first is the Landrush anniversary Junk Dump but there's an echo of this a year later with a smaller spike in deletions. The .asia Landrush Graph (http://www.hosterstats.com/Domain-La...Graph-asia.php) is even more terrifying for a new TLD in that there's a double Junk Dump of approximately the same volume each time.
    Hi JMCC thanks again for all those stats.


    From your site I got the following:

    Highest monthly recorded level of mobi registrations for each year:

    2006 not available
    2007 Dec 757,156 http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2007.php
    2008 Oct 956,412 http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2008.php
    2009 Nov 953,142 http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2009.php
    2010 Sep 970,116 http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2010.php





    But we have regularly heard claims of over 1m registrations, here's one for example:
    http://wapreview.com/blog/?tag=device-atlas
    Paul and all the dotMobi people I've met really "get" what works in terms of web content on current devices. They have a developer and publisher centric view and are commited to providing tools and services to help the mobile web grow by making it easier to build more and better mobile sites. And it's working. dotMobi recently added its millionth domain registration and has seen traffic to find.mobi triple in the last eight months.

  4. #34
    Senior Member gogo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmcc View Post
    The .eu ccTLD is also a very strange TLD. Its development was hampered by massive cyberwarehousing and a high level of cybersquatting. The registry, Eurid, did little to resolve the problems and the EU business community lost confidence in the TLD. This led to a boost in real EU ccTLD registrations and throughout the old EU, the .eu ccTLD is very much a third or fourth choice registration despite what the propaganda from Eurid would claim. The main growth in .eu is now limited to a handful of countries. The engine of .eu is Germany. Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic are the other key players but .eu growth in some of the other EU countries has flat-lined and in some cases, started to go negative.
    Interesting. There are over 3m .eu registrations, and regular reported four and five figure sales, often of German language keywords. I wonder if someday there will be a downward correction in German language domain name prices - a huge number of domains are registered in this language, and I don't know what percentage of them are actually in use.

    From late 2008 a percentage of mobi registrations must be made up of the Chinese IDNs launched that year - renewal time for them could create a later dip in the registration graph than the one for the non-IDNs.

    But if 10% of registered mobi domains are in fact Chinese IDNS, that masks a fall in the registration pool of the domains we have been discussing, which are largely the ones of interest to domainers so far. Some languages and countries seem to like mobi while others do not.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by gogo View Post
    Hi JMCC thanks again for all those stats.


    From your site I got the following:

    Highest monthly recorded level of mobi registrations for each year:

    2006 not available
    2007 Dec 757,156 http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2007.php
    2008 Oct 956,412 http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2008.php
    2009 Nov 953,142 http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2009.php
    2010 Sep 970,116 http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2010.php
    They are based on the zone file as it stood on the first day of each month. While most domains will be in the zone file and have associated nameservers, there will be some (those pending delete and others that have no associated nameservers) that will not appear in the zone but would still appear as registered to the registry. In marketing terms, it would be OK to claim that a TLD has had its millionth registration since launch but that may not take into account the subsequent deletions.

    Regards...jmcc
    http://www.hosterstats.com
    Domain Registration Stats and Historical DNS Database.
    Tracks over 275 Million active and deleted domains in com / net / org / biz / info / mobi /asia TLDs.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by gogo View Post
    Interesting. There are over 3m .eu registrations, and regular reported four and five figure sales, often of German language keywords. I wonder if someday there will be a downward correction in German language domain name prices - a huge number of domains are registered in this language, and I don't know what percentage of them are actually in use.
    Very few are in real use. Eurid did a pseudo-review of samples of .eu websites to try to derive a usage and classification percentage for the sites. The problem was that the methodology was completely bogus, the sample size was too small and the survey ignored the most obvious bit of semantic knowledge as to what a site was about - the domain name itself. The people they used to do the survey got what appears to be a bunch of students to classify sites. Now to anyone who has ever run a search engine, that's the Infinite Monkeys approach. Website classification at a search engine level is highly automated and it is far easier to write or tweak a parser program than pay someone to manually classify sites. I run a website survey on approximately 250K Irish websites every month (some what more than Eurid's tiny survey) and the results for .eu were bad. About 28% of the detected Irish .eu domains are PPC parked, 18.1% were holding pages, 21.17% were redirects, 23.60% were active (some pending classification). But that's only the domains with a working website. Of the domains in my survey, only 70% or so are even set up and working in DNS. From the survey of .eu websites (about 1.7M of them) I did a few years ago, PPC parking overwhelmed natural development in .eu ccTLD. Without the German economy holding .eu together, the TLD would be forced to rely on growth from the other large registrant countries. The prices for German .eu domains are high only because the equivalent .de domain is so valuable. It is possible that there will be a reevaluation of .eu domain prices. Without the Polish, Czech and Italian registrations, there could be serious problems for .eu in the future. The .eu also has IDNs and these effectively boosted .eu registration figures from December 2009 to March 2010. The monthly figures for .eu are quite different from those of 2009 and there seems to be a fall in new registrations according to the stats provided by Eurid.

    From late 2008 a percentage of mobi registrations must be made up of the Chinese IDNs launched that year - renewal time for them could create a later dip in the registration graph than the one for the non-IDNs.
    There's a huge spike in the .mobi registrations for those Chinese IDNs and they were almost completely focused on one hoster. The problem with IDNs is that they are an even higher risk than the ordinary keyword domains because they are in effect mini-ccTLDs with a specific language/country based market. If there is a strong ccTLD in that country that also has IDNs then it could be a problem. The IDN boost can be seen on this graph: http://www.hosterstats.com/Detailed-...stics-2009.php It really did well for the numbers of .mobi registrations. However the number of Chinese .cn domains has almost halved in 2010 and the renewal rates for these .mobi IDNs could be very interesting. I think that mTLD was targeting the wrong market.

    But if 10% of registered mobi domains are in fact Chinese IDNS, that masks a fall in the registration pool of the domains we have been discussing, which are largely the ones of interest to domainers so far. Some languages and countries seem to like mobi while others do not.
    What mTLD is doing right is emphasising development. Not all growth in a TLD is down to domaining and while domaining forms the basis for a lot of the early activity in a TLD, it is the development in the TLD that makes the difference. Some countries do like .mobi whereas to others, the registrants barely know that it exists. This is not a fault of mTLD's marketing in these countries. These countries tend to focus on a very limited set of domains that often have a ccTLD/.com axis.

    Regards...jmcc
    Last edited by jmcc; 09-04-2010 at 09:33 AM.
    http://www.hosterstats.com
    Domain Registration Stats and Historical DNS Database.
    Tracks over 275 Million active and deleted domains in com / net / org / biz / info / mobi /asia TLDs.

  7. #37
    Senior Member ChinaMobi's Avatar
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    However the number of Chinese .cn domains has almost halved in 2010 and the renewal rates for these .mobi IDNs could be very interesting. I think that mTLD was targeting the wrong market.
    The large drop in .cn was due to requirement of photo + business certificate requirement. That pushed a lot of people to .com instead. I don't have much hope for .cn when the Chinese IDN.IDN becomes available (this year?). I think most Chinese will either get IDN.IDN for domestic audience and .com for global audience. There is really no compelling reason for IDN.mobi as far as the Chinese are concerned. I am not interested in the Chinese IDN.mobi.

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