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Thread: .mobi Registration Trends

  1. #1
    Administrator Andres Kello's Avatar
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    Default .mobi Registration Trends

    New .mobi Registrations 2010: http://www.hosterstats.com/Detailed-...stics-2010.php

    New .mobi Registrations 2009: http://www.hosterstats.com/Detailed-...stics-2009.php


    The new .mobi registration count means different things to different people. To me, if less .mobi's are being registered, then it means there's less interest in the extension and less expectations about its future.

    It also looks like Go.mobi - launched back in June - is having a negligible effect on new .mobi registrations so far since we've just hit a 20-month low over a month after its launch which is when you'd expect it to have the greatest effect due to the hype. Perhaps this is why mTLD felt the need to launch the goMobi Challenge 4 days ago. It remains to be seen whether that will have a better effect on new registrations.

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    Founding Member Scandiman's Avatar
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    Being a technology product it is not at all clear this is designed to impact .mobi registrations. If that was the intention then i would say it was not well thought through, since it can be used on any naming convention and i'm not aware of any financial incentive to use a .mobi domain with this product, actually it costs a PC site owner more to use a .mobi with gomobi since mdot is free.

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    not suprising at all, hype has died down and i'd say MOST of the registrations were speculative to begin with..


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    Founding Member Scandiman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andres Kello View Post
    New .mobi Registrations may be at a 20-month low but overall registrations are up about 130,000 since June '09 if I'm reading the charts correctly.

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    Senior Member ChinaMobi's Avatar
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    I'm sorry. I don't get it. I see the number of .mobi has increased to 968,146, 15% growth over 844,687 in Aug, 2009. What am I missing? Yes, there's a slight drop from July, though.

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    Administrator Andres Kello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChinaMobi View Post
    I'm sorry. I don't get it. I see the number of .mobi has increased to 968,146, 15% growth over 844,687 in Aug, 2009. What am I missing? Yes, there's a slight drop from July, though.
    Total active registrations can be skewed by deletions (domain drops) which tend to cycle around the landrush anniversaries (and accounting for the grace period which keeps pushing one part of the cycle farther back each year), so the numbers I watch most closely are the New Registrations, which are - quite literally - new .mobi registrations.

    A growing extension should ideally have a growing number of new registrations - or at the very least - maintain its number of new registrations as that would mean that primary demand for the extension (outside of secondary sales by domainers) is increasing or remaining steady.

    When the Chinese IDN's were launched, for example, there was a huge surge in New Registrations precisely due to the increased demand for the Chinese character .mobi's, although that demand now does not seem to have persisted for very long.

    When giving out registration numbers, mTLD like to provide total .mobi's registered since landrush 2006 (so domains that were dropped and re-registered would count twice, which is why they claimed several years ago that over a million .mobi's had been registered), some prefer to look at the total active registrations, which is the number of .mobi's currently registered at this very moment, but I personally like to look at the trend in New Registrations. Here's why: domainers can negatively skew the total active number of .mobi's by registering many during a hype phase, and dropping many when things aren't going so well. The hype phase is long gone (which should presumably lead to less of a domainer-effect on New Registrations), and we've been seeing large cycles of drops each year (many of them domainer/speculative registrations) which tend to negatively impact the total active registration numbers around the landrush anniversaries. When secondary prices have been falling for as long as they have been with .mobi, domainers tend to shy away from the extension, so if the number of New Registrations is continually going up (or at least holding steady) then I take that to mean there is new blood entering the extension - new end-user blood to be more precise (in other words, people registering domains to do something with it, not just re-sell it). I personally don't care about domainer/speculative registrations, but I do care about end-user registrations as they are the ones that can have the most positive impact on a relatively new extension going forward. I follow the .mobi drops quite closely and I see that not many domainers are picking them up anymore, which I think is a good thing as that means more availability for end-users.

    So when New Registrations drop to the lowest number in 20 months - within the context of a practically non-existent secondary market - then it is quite notable IMO, particularly just before the 4th landrush anniversary, as it reflects a declining demand for the extension (presumably from end-users since declining demand from domainers has already been clearly established for some time now).

    Others will no doubt read it differently, but that's my take on it.
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  7. #7
    Senior Member ChinaMobi's Avatar
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    Andres,

    Thanks for the detailed analysis, which is particularly good for new folks on this forum such as me

    When giving out registration numbers, mTLD like to provide total .mobi's registered since landrush 2006 (so domains that were dropped and re-registered would count twice, which is why they claimed several years ago that over a million .mobi's had been registered), some prefer to look at the total active registrations, which is the number of .mobi's currently registered at this very moment,
    Does ".mobi Total" mean literally the number of .mobi registered at the time of counting? If so, I don't see how double counting can occur.


    I personally don't care about domainer/speculative registrations, but I do care about end-user registrations as they are the ones that can have the most positive impact on a relatively new extension going forward.
    When you look at new registration, can you tell how many of them are from end users or speculators?

    So when New Registrations drop to the lowest number in 20 months - within the context of a practically non-existent secondary market - then it is quite notable IMO, particularly just before the 4th landrush anniversary, as it reflects a declining demand for the extension (presumably from end-users since declining demand from domainers has already been clearly established for some time now).
    I can see your logic. New registrations should grow during the growth phase of a product/service. I checked .com. Its total registration never went down in the last 20 months, unlike the fluctuation we see in .mobi.

  8. #8
    Administrator Andres Kello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChinaMobi View Post
    Does ".mobi Total" mean literally the number of .mobi registered at the time of counting? If so, I don't see how double counting can occur.
    It depends who is saying it. When mTLD say it, they generally mean all the .mobi's that have ever been registered cumulatively (so again, if a domain was registered, dropped, and re-registered, it would count double). HosterStats.com, which is run by member jmcc here, reports the total active .mobi registrations on the first of each month, which is a more accurate representation since it only considers .mobi's that are presently registered (and therefore no .mobi's are double-counted nor are former .mobi's that were dropped and never re-registered counted).

    Quote Originally Posted by ChinaMobi View Post
    When you look at new registration, can you tell how many of them are from end users or speculators?
    Impossible to say with any reasonable degree of accuracy, but considering most domainers have pulled out of .mobi after the hype phase has died down, I would argue that the % of end-users comprising the New Registration count has been steadily going up as domainers have been pulling out. This is why I like to follow the trend in New Registrations, because now that there is absolutely no hype regarding .mobi, a growing New Registration count would finally mean end-users were clearly jumping on board in increasing numbers, which would presumably result in a growing number of future developed .mobi properties. Instead, however, we've reached a 20-month low, which is difficult news for an extension that's still trying to "make it" 4 years on.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChinaMobi View Post
    I can see your logic. New registrations should grow during the growth phase of a product/service. I checked .com. Its total registration never went down in the last 20 months, unlike the fluctuation we see in .mobi.
    It is difficult to compare relatively new extensions with established ones, but I think we can all agree that new extensions need to see growing New Registration numbers if they are to succeed to any appreciable degree.
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  9. #9
    Senior Member ChinaMobi's Avatar
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    Good analysis, Andres. Much appreciated. Back to working on my .mobi sites.

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    Senior Member noonoo1's Avatar
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    For some reasoning I am unable to view the stats on my laptop. Can anyone tell me how the trend in .mobi compares with other extensions?

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    Senior Member gogo's Avatar
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    Thanks for the info and analysis Andres.

    I have been wondering for some time just why anyone would actually use a .mobi domain.

    Now here is an interesting point. If you click on the comparisons link for .mobi at hosterstats you can see the overlap where names are registered across extensions, for example 218,141 names are registered in all of these extensions at once: com, org, net, biz, info, mobi

    Now why are there 98,105 names registered in JUST .mobi ???
    http://www.hosterstats.com/mobi-stld.php

    As I recall there was some doubt about whether the supposed 100,000 Chinese registrations were genuine - does anyone know anything about that? Are 10% of the apparently registered mobi names actually reserved names?

  12. #12
    Senior Member ChinaMobi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gogo View Post
    Now here is an interesting point. If you click on the comparisons link for .mobi at hosterstats you can see the overlap where names are registered across extensions, for example 218,141 names are registered in all of these extensions at once: com, org, net, biz, info, mobi
    Thank you. Now I finally understand what "Domain Name Cross TLD" means. What insights can we gain from looking at the various combinations? Does it imply part of .mobi growth will come naturally when com, org, net, biz, and info are registered?

    As I recall there was some doubt about whether the supposed 100,000 Chinese registrations were genuine - does anyone know anything about that?
    I wish I knew a way to find out how many .mobi are from China. Anyway, I did a "site:.mobi" search on Baidu.com and it returned 1.76m pages in Chinese. It looks like there is lot of Chinese information published on .mobi sites, which should be good news.

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    Senior Member gogo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andres Kello View Post
    It is difficult to compare relatively new extensions with established ones, but I think we can all agree that new extensions need to see growing New Registration numbers if they are to succeed to any appreciable degree.
    There were a lot of complaints and ridicule about .eu, launched 2005, but it now has 3,220,239 registrations
    http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2010.php
    and there are 4 and 5 figure .eu sales on DNJournal most weeks, as well as big companies advertising .eu as their main domain.
    Last edited by gogo; 08-04-2010 at 03:15 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Andres Kello View Post
    It depends who is saying it. When mTLD say it, they generally mean all the .mobi's that have ever been registered cumulatively (so again, if a domain was registered, dropped, and re-registered, it would count double). HosterStats.com, which is run by member jmcc here, reports the total active .mobi registrations on the first of each month, which is a more accurate representation since it only considers .mobi's that are presently registered (and therefore no .mobi's are double-counted nor are former .mobi's that were dropped and never re-registered counted).
    There's always a slight difference between the numbers of domains in the zone and the numbers quoted by mTLD, Andres.
    Basically the only ones that I count are the ones that are in the zonefile at the first of the month so they would be the active ones. What mTLD would be counting are the domains in the zone and the domains registered but without nameservers (either pending deletion or pulled for other reasons).

    Impossible to say with any reasonable degree of accuracy, but considering most domainers have pulled out of .mobi after the hype phase has died down, I would argue that the % of end-users comprising the New Registration count has been steadily going up as domainers have been pulling out. This is why I like to follow the trend in New Registrations, because now that there is absolutely no hype regarding .mobi, a growing New Registration count would finally mean end-users were clearly jumping on board in increasing numbers, which would presumably result in a growing number of future developed .mobi properties. Instead, however, we've reached a 20-month low, which is difficult news for an extension that's still trying to "make it" 4 years on.
    What is surprising about .mobi is that its new registration figure is steady. It will spike on the echo of the Landrush anniversary (Junk Dump) and some other smaller marketing initiatives but a lot of the speculative element that drove the early market in .mobi is not there any more.

    It is difficult to compare relatively new extensions with established ones, but I think we can all agree that new extensions need to see growing New Registration numbers if they are to succeed to any appreciable degree.
    After a few years, all new TLDs reach an almost steady pattern of new registrations. For .mobi, that's around 26-28K a month. The .asia one is around 3K a month. The .mobi is still a very surprising TLD. I did a graph of the .asia landrush and it was almost a perfect example of a Landrush followed by two strongly negative Landrush anniversaries. I'm working on one for .mobi and a few other TLDs so it should be possible to see how the TLDs have fared over the last few years. They are effectively the long views of the detailed yearly graphs.

    Regards...jmcc
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    Domain Registration Stats and Historical DNS Database.
    Tracks over 275 Million active and deleted domains in com / net / org / biz / info / mobi /asia TLDs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gogo View Post
    Thanks for the info and analysis Andres.

    I have been wondering for some time just why anyone would actually use a .mobi domain.

    Now here is an interesting point. If you click on the comparisons link for .mobi at hosterstats you can see the overlap where names are registered across extensions, for example 218,141 names are registered in all of these extensions at once: com, org, net, biz, info, mobi

    Now why are there 98,105 names registered in JUST .mobi ???
    http://www.hosterstats.com/mobi-stld.php
    Some of those would be the Chinese IDN domains but there are others that would be down to people with a ccTLD registering their equivalent .mobi domain. They may not have the exact same .com version so the .mobi might be identical to their ccTLD domain. Since their ccTLD was not included in the cross TLD comparison, the domain would appear unique. This effect is far more apparent in .com where a very high percentage of .com appears unique.

    As I recall there was some doubt about whether the supposed 100,000 Chinese registrations were genuine - does anyone know anything about that? Are 10% of the apparently registered mobi names actually reserved names?
    I just follow the numbers. It seems that mTLD was targeting a new market with those domains and some of the other TLDs also introduced IDNs. The .eu introduced them in December 2009 and it really boosted its registration figures over December to March 2010.

    Regards...jmcc
    http://www.hosterstats.com
    Domain Registration Stats and Historical DNS Database.
    Tracks over 275 Million active and deleted domains in com / net / org / biz / info / mobi /asia TLDs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChinaMobi View Post
    Thank you. Now I finally understand what "Domain Name Cross TLD" means. What insights can we gain from looking at the various combinations? Does it imply part of .mobi growth will come naturally when com, org, net, biz, and info are registered?
    The best thing for .mobi would be if it is considered as a "must register" TLD. These are the TLDs that the hosters and registrars offer to their clients at checkout time in the shopping cart. The .com/net/org would be the main ones but .info and .biz are there as well but not to the same extent as the big three.

    I wish I knew a way to find out how many .mobi are from China.
    Short of checking the complete whois for all .mobi domains, a website survey might be the best way. Most of the Chinese .mobi domains may be on Chinese IPs and Chinese hosters. Beyond that it would involve analysing the content of the websites.

    Regards...jmcc
    http://www.hosterstats.com
    Domain Registration Stats and Historical DNS Database.
    Tracks over 275 Million active and deleted domains in com / net / org / biz / info / mobi /asia TLDs.

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    Senior Member gogo's Avatar
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    latest stats show about the same level of mobi registrations, but with deletions outpacing new registrations last month
    http://www.hosterstats.com/Detailed-...stics-2010.php

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    Senior Member gogo's Avatar
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    Finally - another source of mobi stats:
    http://www.domainsindex.com/ratings.php

    This gives .mobi an A rating but sets the value of a .mobi at 0.31% of a .com
    So when a com sells for $100,000 the .mobi is worth $310.00

    It also says about 28% of mobi domains are active sites.

    Another source of stats is Sedo's quarterly report - it tells what % various extensions are of Sedo sales.
    Last edited by gogo; 11-13-2010 at 06:38 AM.

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    Senior Member ChinaMobi's Avatar
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    Thanks for the link, gogo. Interesting read.

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    Senior Member keithmt's Avatar
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    No surprise to see registration numbers down. I'm dumping the majority of my mobis and expect to see overall numbers decline (regs, rate of renewals).

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    Senior Member gogo's Avatar
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    This thread does not appear to be indexed by Google - can anyone else find it by searching?

    Latest stats on registrations from hosterstats.com http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2010.php

    1st Nov 969,880

    1st Dec 960,817

    a drop in registrations of 9,063 or 0.93% in one month
    Last edited by gogo; 12-02-2010 at 06:22 AM. Reason: correct

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    Founding Member Scandiman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gogo View Post
    This thread does not appear to be indexed by Google - can anyone else find it by searching?

    Latest stats on registrations from hosterstats.com http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2010.php

    1st Nov 969,880

    1st Dec 960,817

    a drop in registrations of 9,063 or 9.3% in one month
    Wouldnt that be more like 0.93%?

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    Senior Member gogo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scandiman View Post
    Wouldnt that be more like 0.93%?
    HI thanks you are right, it's fixed now. More sleep needed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gogo View Post
    There were a lot of complaints and ridicule about .eu, launched 2005, but it now has 3,220,239 registrations
    http://www.hosterstats.com/DomainNameCounts2010.php
    and there are 4 and 5 figure .eu sales on DNJournal most weeks, as well as big companies advertising .eu as their main domain.
    i read a report the other day by sedo that stated after .de, .eu is the most popular cctld (if you want to call that) sold on sedo in numbers and amounts, even more than .co.uk allegedly
    find that hard to believe but i think they sell loads in the sweetspot
    sort of 1500 - 2000 range
    still doesnt make me rush and buy any
    have about 10 i think purely as £1 offers and one worders

  25. #25
    Administrator Andres Kello's Avatar
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    .mobi registrations fell by over 9,000 in November (lowest level since May): http://www.hosterstats.com/Detailed-...stics-2010.php
    My .mobi's: Dating.mobi | Dubai.mobi | Adult.mobi | Banking.mobi | Student.mobi | Call.mobi | Horoscope.mobi | Messenger.mobi | Classifieds.mobi | LiveTV.mobi

    Developed: Yup.mobi | Mobility
    | Why .mobi? | Banking | Vuelos | Airline Complaints | Random Site | Whois | Free Mobile Dating | Free Dictionary | Free Thesaurus | Horoscope | Astrology | Free Translation | Exchange Rates


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    Senior Member blitzpotz's Avatar
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    After days with .mobi drops in the x,xxx we have new numbers. In December 2010, .mobi registrations gained by 2,172 domains. Now there are 962,989 mobis registered.

    Personally I am very suprised about this growth, would have expected a total loss of at least high x,xxx.
    Comparison: In December 2008 ("Landrush II") dot.mobi lost 36,531 regs in total, in December 2009 ("Landrush III") there was a minus of 4,269. See also chart in post #1 of this thread.

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    Founding Member Scandiman's Avatar
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    I wonder if the now resolving Premiums may have provided a slight boost since they are now technically registered via a registrar.

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    Mobility Regular morse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blitzpotz View Post
    After days with .mobi drops in the x,xxx we have new numbers. In December 2010, .mobi registrations gained by 2,172 domains. Now there are 962,989 mobis registered.

    Personally I am very suprised about this growth, would have expected a total loss of at least high x,xxx.
    Comparison: In December 2008 ("Landrush II") dot.mobi lost 36,531 regs in total, in December 2009 ("Landrush III") there was a minus of 4,269. See also chart in post #1 of this thread.
    .mobi has seen the "RED" and the "FLAT" , its emerging now with many corrections, the better part is that mTLD organization has got nothing to do with it. Mobilizer and go.mobi have failed, mobile web developers are taking up .mobi domains now

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    Founding Member Scandiman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by morse View Post
    .mobi has seen the "RED" and the "FLAT" , its emerging now with many corrections, the better part is that mTLD organization has got nothing to do with it. Mobilizer and go.mobi have failed, mobile web developers are taking up .mobi domains now
    I still see domain investor activity, but it's good to see more developer/end user activity as well. I agree that so far it's hard to see a measurable impact from mobilizer and now gomobi. I rarely encounter those types of sites, and frankly I'm surprised with the continued tech problems that people are experiencing with gomobi. Even if the problems are rooted in the reseller, its a reflection on the product as a whole.

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    Administrator Andres Kello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blitzpotz View Post
    Personally I am very suprised about this growth, would have expected a total loss of at least high x,xxx.
    Comparison: In December 2008 ("Landrush II") dot.mobi lost 36,531 regs in total, in December 2009 ("Landrush III") there was a minus of 4,269. See also chart in post #1 of this thread.
    Becareful when comparing the same month in different years because the Grace Period on domains keeps pushing the junk drops farther and farther back each year. I'm dropping hundreds of dropcatches from last year's junk drop cycle in December 2009 which are still within the Grace Period and technically "registered" even though it's already January 2011.
    My .mobi's: Dating.mobi | Dubai.mobi | Adult.mobi | Banking.mobi | Student.mobi | Call.mobi | Horoscope.mobi | Messenger.mobi | Classifieds.mobi | LiveTV.mobi

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